The forecast for Northern Lights has been beefed up in all aspects.
NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) has increased the percentage chances of moderate, and strong-to-extreme strength geomagnetic storms.
SWPC has also widened the time period in which they feel we could have a geomagnetic storm producing Northern Lights.
The stronger the geomagnetic storm is, the farther south the Northern Lights can be seen. SWPC has also increased the expected coverage of Northern Lights, with a viewing chance farther south.
The new forecast of the timing makes it easy for us to know when to look for the sky magic. SWPC now says anytime from dark tonight through sunrise Sunday could have Northern Lights.
SWPC still targets just after dark Saturday night for the highest Kp Index and therefore the most robust Northern Lights. However, there is a problem with waiting until Saturday night to look for Northern Lights, as it will be cloudy over parts of Michigan.
Here is the latest forecast from SWPC. It has quite a few numbers, so I’ll make it easy for you.
Kp Index forecast from 8 p.m. Thursday, October 3 to 8 p.m. Sunday, October 6. A Kp Index of 6 or higher gives a good chance of northern lights occurring. (Source: NOAA)NOAA
The section labeled Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities shows a 30% chance of a moderate geomagnetic storm tonight and Saturday night. It also shows a 35% chance of a strong-extreme geomagnetic storm tonight and a 40% chance Saturday night.
The bottom section gives us Kp Index forecasts in three-hour increments. The higher Kp numbers gives us a great chance of Northern Lights and are an indication of possible farther south viewing.
With a Kp Index of 6, Northern Lights would be visible south to about central Lower Michigan. If the Kp Index hits 7 Saturday evening, Northern Lights would be visible in Indiana, Illinois and Ohio.
Remember that Saturday night will have some areas of solid clouds as a swath of rain moves across Michigan.
While Northern Lights could be visible just after dark tonight, the SWPC forecast shows 11 p.m. tonight as an increased chance of Northern Lights. We may be up late tonight to see the best Northern Lights show.
If you want to see the Northern Lights tonight, get to a high spot with a clear view looking north. You’ll want to be there by 11 p.m. but may have to wait until after midnight to see them.