Ohryzko: Russia entering phase of stagnation, its economy resembles chaos of 1990s

Volodymyr Ohryzko, former Ukrainian foreign minister and head of the Center for Russian Studies, said this in an interview with Ukrinform.

“If everything were going well in Russia, we wouldn’t be seeing absurd cases like sending donkeys to the front instead of Ural trucks. If the economy were truly stable, the Russian army wouldn’t have to rely on rusted-out equipment that should have long been relegated to the scrap heap of history,” Ohryzko said.

According to the diplomat, the Kremlin is struggling to adapt to modern warfare, particularly by developing drone technology, but this comes at the cost of exhausting its remaining resources.

“Russian economists themselves admit that even under the current, far-from-perfect sanctions, the Russian economy is in a zone of turbulence. This is further confirmed by Keith Kellogg, Trump’s envoy for war settlement, who rated the impact of sanctions on Russia as just a ‘three’ on a ten-point scale. What happens if that rating rises to a nine or ten?” Ohryzko added.

He said that Russia has already entered a phase of stagnation, with inflation rising and no economic growth despite trillions being poured into the military-industrial complex.

“The Russian automotive industry has become nothing more than an appendage of China’s. The coal industry is preparing to close mines. The aviation sector is in such decline that even Russians themselves are afraid to fly on their own planes. The construction industry is collapsing — newly built residential complexes remain unsold because loan interest rates have reached 30%, while microloan rates have soared to 300%, reminiscent of the chaos of the 1990s after the Soviet Union collapsed. Even Putin himself has been forced to admit that economic growth isn’t coming. Experts predict a wave of bankruptcies and the shutdown of entire industries. Yet, instead of a real analysis, the Kremlin continues its propaganda, trying to convince the West of its ‘strength’ to force concessions. But behind this facade is only fear of imminent economic failure,” the diplomat said.

According to Ohryzko, Russia is now making every effort to fuel another propaganda wave with the narrative: “We are still strong, we can still fight.” The goal of this rhetoric is psychological pressure on the West. The Kremlin wants to convince international partners that if Russia can hold out for another ten years, then there is no point in engaging in a sanctions war — negotiation would be the better option.

“This is a key moment. Nuclear blackmail didn’t work, so Russia is changing tactics, trying to project economic strength. But the real numbers tell a different story. Just look at the data: the combined GDP of the European Union, the United Kingdom, and the United States is 25 times larger than Russia’s. When you factor in military potential, the West’s advantage becomes even more obvious. So who exactly does the Kremlin think it’s intimidating? The answer is clear — Russia is losing not just on the battlefield, but also in the economic war,” Ohryzko concluded.